Ang Bullish Market

Almario Jr Mendoza
is a Financial expert in the Philippines

Madalas nating naririnig ang konsepto ng bullish o bearish market mula sa mga investors. Ngunit ano nga ba ang ibig sabihin ng mga ito?


Ang bullish market ay isang katangian na kung saan ang takbo ng presyo ng mga stocks sa merkado ay papataas. Ibig sabihin nito, ay kung ikaw ay nasa bullish market, ang expectation ay ang iyong binili ay tataas ang presyo at ikaw ay kikita mula rito.


May iba’t ibang mga chart formations na senyales ng isang bullish market. Ang ilan sa mga ito ay ang sumusunod:


1. Rounding Bottom


Ang rounding bottom ay isang long-term reversal pattern na akma para sa mga weekly charts. Ang unang makikita bago ang formation na ito ay isang downward formation na may low na mas mataas kaysa sa low ng rounding bottom gaya ng ipinapakita ng chart sa ibaba. Ang unang bahagi ng rounding bottom pattern ay ang pagbaba o decline na dumidiretso sa low nito. Ang low ay kadalasang kahalintulad ng letter “V” pero hindi masyadong matulis at ito’y kadalasang inaaabot ng ilang linggo bago mabuo. Dahil ang presyo ay matagal ng mababa, ang possibilidad ng pagtaas ng selling ay nabubuo na nagiging dahilan ng mababang spike. Pagkatapos ng low ay ang huling bahagi ng formation na may period na kasinghaba ng sa unang bahagi.


Pagdating naman sa volume, ito’y mataas sa simula ng pagbaba o decline (bago ang low) at mababa sa pagtatapos ng decline sa panahon ng advance.



2. Double Bottom


Ang Double Bottom pattern naman ay binubuo ng dalawang magkasunod na toughs o malakas na pagbaba na halos magkapareho ang sukat at may isang moderate na peak na pumapagitna rito.


Ang downtrend ang unang mapapansin sa loob ng ilang buwan bago humantong sa Double Bottom formation. Ang unang trough sa formation ay ang pinakamababang punto sa kasalukuyang trend. Ang susunod rito ay ang peak na kadalasang nasa pagitan ng 10% hanggang 20% ng unang trough. Pagdating sa volume ng through, hindi ito kinakikitaan ng significant na pagbaba. Ang sumunod na trough ay kakikitaan ng mababang volume at ito’y sumasagi sa support ng nakaraang low nito. Ang pahanon sa pagitan ng dalawang throughs ay kadalasang umaabot ng isa hanggang tatlong buwan. Pagkatapos nito ay ang advance stage na kung saan kakikitaan ang volume nito ng biglaan o accelerating na pagtaas.


Makikita sa ibaba ang itsura ng isang Double Bottom pattern:



3. Triple/ Multiple Bottom


Ang triple bottom naman ay binubuo ng tatlong makakaparehas na lows na sinusundan ng break na mas mataas kaysa sa resistance. Ito ay kadalasang nabubuo sa loob ng tatlo hanggang anim na buwan.


Ang trend ay nagsisimula sa isang downtrend bago ang triple bottom formation. Susundan na ito ng tatlong lows na magkakapareho at well spaced. Mapapansin sa chart sa ibaba na ang volume pagdating sa formation ay pangkalahatang bumababa. Ngunit pagdating sa third low, ang volume ay tumataas lalo na sa advance stage o pagkatapos ng formation at sa level ng resistance. Ang resistance ang pinakamataas na punto ng formation.



4. Reverse Head & Shoulders Bottom


Ang head and shoulders pattern ay binubuo ng left shoulder, head, right shoulder, at neckline gaya ng nasa chart sa ibaba.



Ang unang bahagi bago ang head and shoulders ay ang tinatawag na downtrend o ang papababa na trending. Ang left shoulder naman ay bumubuo ng pinakamababa na point sa nakalipas na downtrend. Pagkatapos ng trend nito ay ang pagtaas na hindi lumalagpas sa neckline o ang horizontal line na kumukonekta sa point 1 at point 2. Ang point 1 ang pagtatapos ng left shoulder at pagsisimula ng ng head samantalang ang point 2 ang kumokonekta sa pagtatapos ng head at pagsisimula ng right shoulder gaya ng nasa larawan. Ang susunod rito ay ang pagtaas at ang pagbuo sa tinatawag na head o ulo ng pattern. Ito ang pinakamababang punto sa formation na sinusundan naman ng pagtaas rin na hindi lalagpas sa neckline. Ang susunod rito ay ang pagbaba ulit na magiging right shoulder ng chart pattern. Ang low nito ay mas mataas kung ihahambing sa head. Kapag lumagpas ang pinakamataas na punto ng right shoulder sa neckline ay senyales ito ng isang bullish market. Pagdating naman sa volume, ang left shoulder ay kakikitaan ng mabigat na volume sa punto ng pagbaba nito. Pagdating naman sa advance stage (pagkatapos ng formation) ay makikita ang pagataas ng volume nito.

Technical analysis is a method of examining past market data to help forecast future price movements. Using different tools, indicators, and charts, traders can spot important price patterns and market trends, and then use that data to anticipate a market's future performance.

While fundamental analysis involves analysing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value, technical analysis uses a different approach. It doesn't consider the "value" of a company or a commodity at all. In contrast, technicians (or chartists) are just interested in the price movements in the market.

Technical analysis is based around a market's price history, rather than the fundamental data such as earnings, dividends, news, and events. The belief is that price action tends to repeat itself and the patterns can be identified and used to define a market's trend.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it uses, technical analysis actually only looks at supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In short, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

In analyzing a chart of trading prices, indicators measure changes in market sentiment — bullish, bearish, etc. Indicators are just patterns on a chart or arithmetic calculations whose value depends on how you use them.

Moving averages are lagging indicators help gauge the direction of the current trend of a market. Trend Lines are important for identifying and confirming trend direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the strength and speed of a market's price movement by comparing current price to past performance. Fibonacci retracements can help traders identify significant price points and predict levels of support and resistance.


But these are not perfect, and not 100 percent effective. Many times, your indicator will fail and you’ll take losses in technical trading. However, don’t take it personally. Comfort yourself knowing that using indicators minimizes losses, but indicators never eliminate all losses.

About the author

Almario Jr Mendoza

Currently working in one of the biggest Investment Banks in the world. Has extensive experience in accounting, finance, and investments ranging from Bonds, Money Market, and the Stock Market. A member of Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants. A graduate of Ateneo Graduate School of Business and University of Santo Tomas.
Profession: Certified Public Accountant & Certified Securities Specialist (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Philippines , Metro Manila , Taguig City
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